The highest-level US-Iran meeting since 1979 stretches past midnight in Islamabad as negotiators wrangle over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, and a Lebanon ceasefire — with Israel's shadow looming over every demand.
The marble halls of Islamabad's diplomatic quarter are hosting something that would have been unthinkable a year ago — the Vice President of the United States and the Speaker of Iran's parliament locked in direct negotiations to end a six-week war that has redrawn the strategic map of the Middle East. JD Vance, flanked by special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner, arrived in Pakistan's capital to face a 71-member Iranian delegation led by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. These are the first direct principal-level talks between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, and Pakistan — which quietly brokered the two-week ceasefire that made this moment possible — is playing host to what may be the most consequential diplomatic gamble of the decade.
The atmosphere inside the negotiating rooms has been described by Pakistani sources as cautiously constructive, but a brutal stalemate has crystallized around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's position is unambiguous: full sovereignty over the waterway, complete war reparations from what it calls the aggressor, unconditional release of frozen assets, and a durable ceasefire spanning the entire West Asian theater. Ghalibaf, never one for diplomatic pleasantries, set the tone upon landing: "Our experience negotiating with Americans has always been accompanied by failure and breaches of commitments," he declared, before adding that Iran would show "readiness for agreement" if Washington demonstrated genuine intent. Araghchi offered a narrow opening, stating that safe passage through the Strait could be arranged "via coordination with Iran's Armed Forces" — language that falls far short of the unconditional reopening Washington demands. On the American side, the 15-point proposal reportedly includes Iran surrendering its highly enriched uranium stockpile, accepting hard limits on defense capabilities, and committing to a permanent nuclear-weapons ban.
Israel's fingerprints are all over the fault lines in these talks, even though no Israeli delegation sits at the table. The war itself was triggered by joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning in late February, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei, and Tehran's demand for a ceasefire in Lebanon — where Israeli operations against Hezbollah continue unabated — has become a non-negotiable precondition. Ghalibaf was explicit: no substantive negotiations proceed until Israeli strikes on Lebanon halt and Iran's blocked assets are released. For Washington, this creates an impossible triangulation — Vance cannot credibly restrain Israeli military operations while simultaneously relying on the US-Israel alliance as strategic leverage. Kushner's presence at the table, given his deep ties to Israeli leadership, signals that the administration is attempting to manage the Israel variable in real time rather than pretending it does not exist. Tehran views Kushner's role with suspicion, but the alternative — having no channel to Israeli decision-making during talks — is arguably worse for all sides.
As the clock pushed past midnight and into Sunday, the delegations showed no signs of breaking off. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met both sides separately, working the margins to keep momentum alive. The fundamental question remains whether Washington can deliver enough on Iran's core demands — Hormuz sovereignty, asset release, Lebanon ceasefire — to extract the nuclear concessions that justify this entire exercise to a domestic audience primed for toughness. Iran, meanwhile, must decide whether the devastation of the last six weeks and the loss of its Supreme Leader create enough pressure to accept terms it would have rejected outright a month ago. The two-week ceasefire holds, but barely, with both sides accusing the other of violations. If these talks collapse, the next escalation will not be measured in diplomatic cables but in carrier strike groups and ballistic trajectories. Islamabad is where the war either finds its off-ramp or enters a far more dangerous chapter.