US Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad to lead the American delegation in the first direct US-Iran negotiations since 1979, as the two-week ceasefire hangs in the balance and the fate of Lebanon threatens to unravel the entire deal.
The most consequential diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution begins today in Islamabad, with US Vice President JD Vance leading an American delegation that includes envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. On the Iranian side, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to push for a comprehensive deal that includes an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who brokered the ceasefire that paused the 39-day war, will host the talks at a moment when both sides are publicly questioning whether the truce can survive.
The central obstacle is Lebanon. Iran insists that the ceasefire must extend to cover Israeli operations against Hezbollah, pointing out that three of its 10-point ceasefire conditions have already been violated — continued strikes on Lebanon, a drone entering Iranian airspace, and denial of Iran's uranium enrichment rights. The US and Israel maintain that the ceasefire covers only direct US-Iran hostilities and does not restrain Israel's war in Lebanon. That disagreement nearly collapsed the truce within hours of its announcement, when Israel launched over 100 strikes across Lebanon in 10 minutes, killing 254 people in the deadliest day of the conflict since March 2.
The stakes could not be higher. If negotiations break down, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz permanently, choking off one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Global markets, which briefly rallied on ceasefire hopes, have already reversed course. Oil prices are climbing again, shipping companies are rerouting tankers, and governments from Tokyo to Berlin are preparing contingency plans for prolonged energy disruption. Both Washington and Tehran are under enormous domestic pressure to claim victory — leaving precious little room for the kind of compromise that could turn a fragile two-week pause into lasting peace.